AGermanstudysuggeststhatpeoplewhoweretoooptimisticabouttheirfutureactuallyfacedgreaterriskofdisabilityordeathwithin10yearsthanthosepessimistswhoexpectedtheirfuturetobeworse.
ThepaperpublishedthisMarchinPsychologyandAgingexaminedhealthandwelfaresurveysfromroughly40000Germansbetweenages18and96.Thesurveyswereconductedeveryyearfrom1993to2003.
Surveyrespondents(受访者)wereaskedtoestimatetheirpresentandfuturelifesatisfactiononascaleof0to10amongotherquestions.
Theresearchersfoundthatyoungadults(age18to39)routinelyoverestimatedtheirfuturelifesatisfactionwhilemiddle-agedadults(age40to64)moreaccuratelypredictedhowtheywouldfeelinthefuture.Adultsof65andolderhoweverwerefarmorelikelytounderestimatetheirfuturelifesatisfaction.Notonlydidtheyfeelmoresatisfiedthantheythoughttheywouldtheolderpessimistsseemedtosufferalowerratio(比率)ofdisabilityanddeathforthestudyperiod.
“Weobservedthatbeingtoooptimisticinpredictingabetterfuturethanactuallyobservedwasassociatedwithagreaterriskofdisabilityandagreaterriskofdeathwithinthefollowingdecade”wroteFriederR.LangaprofessorattheUniversityofErlangen-Nuremberg.
Langandhiscolleaguesbelievedthatpeoplewhowerepessimisticabouttheirfuturemaybemorecarefulabouttheiractionsthanpeoplewhoexpectedarosyfuture.
“Seeingadarkfuturemayencouragepositiveevaluationsoftheactualselfandmaycontributetotakingimprovedprecautions(预防措施)”theauthorswrote.
Surprisinglycomparedwiththoseinpoorhealthorwhohadlowincomesrespondentswhoenjoyedgoodhealthorincomewereassociatedwithexpectingagreaterdecline.Alsotheresearcherssaidthathigherincomewasrelatedtoagreaterriskofdisability.
Theauthorsofthestudynotedthattherewerelimitationstotheirconclusions.Illnessmedicaltreatmentandpersonallosscouldalsohavedrivenhealthoutcomes.
Howevertheresearcherssaidapatternwasclear.“Wefoundthatfromearlytolateadulthoodindividualsadapttheirexpectationsoffuturelifesatisfactionfromoptimistictoaccuratetopessimistic”theauthorsconcluded.