英语翻译
Thisviewoffinancialmarketsiscloselyrelatedtotheideaofthemarketasabeautycontest(Keynes,1936)orvotingmechanism(GrahamandDodd,1934).Inthesemodelspricemovementscomeaboutbychangesininvestorbeliefsandexpectationsthatarenotnecessarilyinducedbychangesinfundamentals.Investorsinsteadtrytogaugewhatothermarketparticipantsarethinkingbyforminghigher-orderbeliefs.Themodernexpressionfortheseaggregatedbeliefsintheinvestorpopulationisinvestorsentiment(Barberis,Shleifer,andVishny,1998);andsecond-orderbeliefscanthusbeinterpretedaspersonalestimateofcurrentinvestorsentiment.Theycanleadtoanadjustmentofownbeliefs(asperBayesianupdating)andtoexpectationsbecomingmorehomogeneousinmarkets.However,theycandiffergreatlyfromactualinvestorsentimentiftheunderlyingjudgmentsofothers'beliefsaresystematicallybiasedandthusinaccurate.